Saturday, January 5, 2008

Kibaki offers opposition potential power-sharing role in gov't to ease tensions; Scotland Yard team arrives in Pakistan...

5 January :: WSJ reporting "After a week of political stalemate and bloodshed, Kenyan president Mwai Kibaki said Saturday that he was prepared to form a government of national unity with the opposition, easing tensions between the two side and potentially setting the stage for negotiations to end violence that has so far killed at least 300 people and displaced as many as 250,000"... A team of investigators from Britain's Scotland Yard police headquarters arrived yesterday in Pakistan to assist in the probe into the assassination of fmr PM Benazir Bhutto; Pakistan's pres. Pervez Musharraf said the team would assist in forensics but warned against "a wild goose chase" and said their role would not be permitted to interfere with Pakistan's internal politics... According to BBC report, China will see migration of 320 million people —more than the entire current population of the US— from rural areas to its urban centers in coming decades; the mass migration is said to be having environmental impact on "every atom in the Chinese soil", the general diet, the food supply, and potentially agricultural and commodities markets across the world... Le Monde reports indications gathering that US headed for recession in 2008, citing Pres. Bush's caution, pledges to work with Democrats in Congress to shore up economic weak spots, also noting that while only 18,000 jobs were created across the nation in December, unemployment is up to its highest in at least 2 years... French philosopher, writer and feminist Simone de Beauvoir was born 100 years ago, spurring a new round of publications and re-editions of her work, to celebrate her achievement and the significance of her ideas in 20th century society and culture...

Thursday, January 3, 2008

IOWA CAUCUSES: Obama, Huckabee win in Iowa, both parties looking at call for change, renewal...

Barack Obama takes 38% of Democratic caucus-goers, John Edwards in 2nd at 30%, Hillary Clinton in 3rd at 29%, while Mike Huckabee won the Republican caucuses with 34%, Mitt Romney in 2nd at 25%; Fred Thompson and John McCain were separated at one point by fewer than 40 votes in contest for GOP 3rd place, and veteran senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden announced they would withdraw from the Democratic primary race after finishing last among candidates contesting Iowa; Rudolph Giuliani —once considered national frontrunner among Republican candidates— finished next to last among 7 Republican candidates, but said he will continue on to New Hampshire, still hoping to win...

Sen. Obama, in his post-caucus speech, declared passionately "We are one nation! One people! And our time for change has come!" to an inspired ovation; Gov. Huckabee, in a speech praised on CNN for its exuding a kind of "inner peace" reminded those listening that Iowa's vote for his candidacy seems to express the idea that "people really are more important than the purse"... Both Clinton and Edwards took up Obama's language about change, praising voters for expressing the desire to see change in Washington, with Edwards telling Larry King he believed Clinton's 3rd place finish, while not putting her out of contention, means those voting for change would be choosing between Obama and himself... Mitt Romney compared his 2nd-place finish to a silver medal at the Olympics and said he planned to win the gold in the "final event"...

Obama leads Dems in Iowa, Huckabee takes GOP prize; Iran supreme leader foresees restoring ties with US; Odinga rejects independent recount of vote...

3 January :: Obama leads Dems in Iowa caucuses 38% to 30%, 29% for Edwards, Clinton respectively; Huckabee overtakes Romney 34% to 25%, with McCain, Thompson around 13% each; long-time frontrunners have been overtaken by candidates with fresh pitch, passionate "ground" organizations... Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamanei has said he would favor reestablishing ties with the US in the future, when it is in Iran's interests to do so, but said he believes the moment is not right and it would hurt Iran to do so at this time; he also reiterated Tehran's policy of refusing to cease uranium enrichment, which the Bush administration has said is a precondition for relaxing hostilities between the two states... After estimated 300 violent deaths since election, Kenyan pres. Mwai Kibaki has said he would be open to talks with opposition leaders, but placed conditions on those talks; Raila Odinga has refused an offer by Kibaki's attorney general to have an independent arbiter oversee a recount of the disputed vote, demanding Kibaki resign and calling alleged police killing of civilians "genocide"...

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Crude oil hits $100/barrel; Justice launches criminal investigation of CIA destruction of videotapes; Pakistan asks UK to head Bhutto investigation...

2 January :: Crude oil prices hit record $100, before falling to $99, amid claims of high demand, violence in oil producing countries, driving prices higher; the rapidly weakening dollar is also considered to be a factor in the rising prices... US Justice Dept. launches criminal probe of CIA destruction of hundreds of hours of videotape, allegedly showing use of harsh or banned interrogation techniques; tapes had been concealed during previous inquiries, Congress also investigating... Pakistan pres. Pervez Musharraf has requested UK's Scotland Yard head investigation into assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto; gov't has also said it will consider exhuming body to perform autopsy, after it was alleged gov't agents threatened doctors attempting to perform autopsy... Pakistan's parliamentary elections, slated for next week, will be postponed till 2nd half of February, with gov't saying security situation has made it impossible to hold free and fair polls... US intelligence officials have said they are not convinced that Pakistan's official explanation of Benazir Bhutto's killing is definitive, call for broader investigation with international assistance... Gray wolves in western US to lose endangered species protected status, meaning ranchers in Wyoming, or surrounding states may feel emboldened to 'cull' at will to prevent further spread of reintroduced species... On eve of Iowa caucuses, WSJ hosting "predictive" market community where users can "trade" on probability of candidates' winning; WSJ reports "On New Year's Eve, markets ranked each of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards at least a 30% chance of winning", while "they have upgraded Mr. Obama's chances of winning (he's now a better than 50-50 bet), while Ms. Clinton is a clear second-favorite, with a just-under one-in-three chance of winning"; there is no clear track-record for this sort of predictive matrix in electoral politics...

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Kenyan report shows mysterious 1.3 million vote swing in count; Pakistan officials accused of threatening doctors to stop Bhutto autopsy...

1 January 2008 :: Le Monde has acquired a document that outlines irregularities recorded by observers of the Kenyan presidential poll, appearing to demonstrate fraud amounting to the altering of millions of votes: according to Le Monde, the report shows that opposition leader Raila Odinga led by as much as one million votes, a lead which disappeared in mysterious circumstances in late counting; the document was reportedly presented to the government in advance of the announcement that incumbent president Mwai Kibaki was the official winner... Fighting across the country is reported to be intensifying, with nearly 300 people killed in clashes with police; in one western city, where Odinga's support is particularly strong, reports suggest police fired "indiscriminately" into crowds of civilian demonstrators, killing 40, including women and children; fighting has revealed ethnic rifts in Kenyan society and Maina Kiai, chairman of the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights has lamented “We are going back to the days of dictatorship”... Reports from Pakistan show gov't has reversed its position on cause of Bhutto death, now offering reward for two suspects seen in video of shooting; CNN is also reporting that a lawyer for Rawalpindi General Hospital, where Bhutto was treated, says gov't officials threatened doctors who intended to perform an autopsy of Bhutto's body to determine cause of death; in his open letter, he wrote "There is a state within the state, and that state within the state does not want itself to be held accountable", an apparent reference to an alleged cadre of corrupt security officials accused of not wanting a return to democratic rule... An American diplomat was shot and killed in the center of Khartoum, Sudan; US officials are not speaking about the details of the killing, saying the shooting is still under investigation; IHT reports "On Monday, President George W. Bush, who has called the conflict in Darfur a genocide, signed a bill that makes it easier for mutual funds and other investment managers to sell stakes in companies that do business in Sudan"...

Monday, December 31, 2007

Opposition to Musharraf swells in wake of Bhutto killing; Kenya vote spurs violence in opposition to alleged vote-rigging...

31 December :: Reports suggest Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party now seeks to mount firm opposition to Musharraf rule, creating concerns of unrest, political instability as troubled nation seeks return to democratic government; WSJ reports new PPP co-chair Asif Ali Zardari "yesterday repeatedly referred to the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), a party affiliated with Mr. Musharraf that controlled the outgoing government, as the "murderers' league." He also demanded a United Nations commission of inquiry into his wife's death"... Wash. Post reports "The death toll from violent protests rose dramatically Monday in this East African country as police clamped down on ethnically charged riots fueled by allegations of vote-rigging in the presidential election"; leading up to the vote, the incumbent pres. Mwai Kibaki had been heavily criticized for directing an unfair election process, and the results have been in dispute since the votes were cast... GOP worries Dems' voters have more energy for primaries, general election, express concern about ability to organize, raise money effectively throughout 2008...

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